Grim Graduation Prediction for SDUSD

Last April, the California Department of Education announced that California high schools had achieved a record high graduation rate. Their reporting indicated that the graduation rate among students who started high school in the 2010-2011 school year reached 80.8 percent--a 0.4 percent increase from the year before. Additionally, no sub-group dropped in graduation rates and many groups--including English Language Learners--saw significant improvement. While this--and similar trends across the country--were welcome news, many took a more skeptical view of the rising rates--pointing to differences in what constitutes a high school "graduate" from state to states. NPR ran a series focused on these concerns in 2015.

While the rising rates of high school completes is overall good news, a recent report (embedded below) released by the University of California San Diego suggests that the trend may soon taper off within San Diego Unified high schools. The report points to the district's recent policy of requiring all students to take UC A-G college preparatory coursework--a policy started for the class of 2016 cohort. While the study found that this policy has increased the population of students passing these courses and thus eligible for UC/CSU applications and admissions, the study also reported concerning results that suggest a declining graduation rate this school year. According to the UCSD report:

• Approximately 27% will face difficulty in finishing their remaining A-G requirements this semester--meaning that they will be ineligible to graduate by June 2016.

• English Language Learners and students with IEPs comprise over half of that 27% of students.

• These findings also suggest that those students with grade point averages of less than 2.0--an additional graduation requirement--will increase. When factored in, this means that the group of students at risk of not graduating rises slightly to 28%

• If these predictions are correct, the projected 2016 graduation rate will be 72%--a rate significantly lower than than the 87.5% June 2014 graduation rate (89.7% eventually graduated after summer school).

KPBS--San Diego's NPR affiliate--recently discussed these findings with a co-author of the report, Julian Betts, and SDUSD Board Member Richard Barrera.

Study: San Diego Graduation Rates Expected To Drop

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While the final outcomes remain to be seen, these reports nonetheless underscore the continued need for targeted interventions directed towards our most deserving student sub-groups.

Questions to Consider:

• What, if any, problems do you see in the SDUSD policy requiring all students to take UC A-G approved, college prep, curriculum?

• What can the district and local schools do to ensure that those struggling 27% of students receive adequate support?