San Diego Unified Provides Updated Graduation Prediction

Last month, a study conducted by the University of California, San Diego predicted a significant drop in San Diego Unified's graduation rate for the 2015-2016 school year. As examined in this blog, these concerning figures stemmed from the district's recent policy of requiring all students to take and complete the rigorous A-G college preparatory curriculum.

During last night's board meeting, however, San Diego Unified released its own rebuttal to these reports--claiming instead that their internal data predicts a record high graduation rate of 92%. This rate reaches significantly higher than the predicted 72% from the UCSD study and slightly higher than the previous years rate of 89.7%. Why the drastic discrepancy in predictions? According to SDUSD officials cited in this morning's San Diego Union Tribune, the UCSD study was flawed in that it relied on data taken last year during the class of 2016's junior year and failed to account for the interventions administered this school year. District officials are confident that their figures are accurate and that the 

Below are the articles from KPBS and the San Diego UT highlighting today's reports.

San Diego Unified High School Graduation Rates Higher Than Expected

SD Unified predicts record graduation rate

With such polarized predictions, one thing remains certain: only time will tell the final graduation rate for the class of 2016.

Money, Race, Academic Achievement, and San Diego Unified School District

Earlier this week, the New York Times published an eye-opening article highlighting the correlation between socio-economic/racial background and academic achievement. While the article underscores a long realistic unacceptable trend in the American Education system (that minority and socio-economic status play a correlative factor in a students projected academic trajectories), it nonetheless provides important insight into trends within specific districts. According to research conducted by Stanford University, a positive correlation exists between socioeconomic status and academic achievement (meaning that as socioeconomic status rises, so does academic performance and vice versa). The research goes on to cite that more affluent school districts score, on average, 4+ grade levels higher in reading and math test scores than their peers in the poorest school districts. The research further looked at academic achievement across ethic lines and found similar trends--especially in those areas where large socio-economic gaps also existed. Take a look at the interactive maps in the article to see data from various districts (brownie-points if you can find San Diego Unified):

Money, Race and Success: How Your School District Compares 

For those that could not--or did not have the time to--find San Diego Unified School District on the two main graphs, take a look at the following screenshots:

First, the graph comparing San Diego Unified to other districts in terms of socio-economic status and achievement. Notice how SDUSD falls in the middle in middle in both of these variables.

Educational Attainment in Each School District in the United States.

The next graph shows how minority sub-groups in SDUSD compared to their peers in terms of both academic achievement and socio-economic status. Notice how Hispanic and Black students fall well below their white peers in both categories. 

Academic Achievement Among Minority SubGroups

While it is important to remember that this research only shows a correlation between these factors, it nonetheless underscores the realities that can exist for socioeconomically disadvantaged and minority students. This is especially concerning when you look at the demographic profile of San Diego Unified--again, the second largest school district in the state. According to San Diego Unified's own reporting, the district contains the following rates of ethnic diversity:

• 46.5% Hispanic/Latino
• 23.4% White
• 10.2% African American
• 19.9% Other

Furthermore, the EdData website--which tracks and records student demographic information from across the nation--reported that nearly 60.7% of students in SDUSD qualified for the National School Lunch Program--meaning that their family income level falls below, or significantly close to, the federal poverty standards. While it is albeit foolish to posit that the Stanford research is accurate for all the reported student subgroups in SDUSD, this research--combined with the demographic profile of San Diego--makes this information all the more relevant to teachers, administrators, students, and families within the district.